#ThinkfullyHabit: Be wrong
In 1492, Italian explorer Christopher Columbus sailed west from Spain across the Atlantic Ocean to East Asia. From the books and maps available to him at the time he calculated where he thought Japan should be located to the west of Spain. Several weeks later he found land. He sighted Cuba, which he thought was mainland China, and in December the expedition landed on Hispaniola, which Columbus thought might be Japan. He called the land he discovered the Indies.
Unfortunately, Columbus underestimated the size of the world. He did not know that the Pacific Ocean existed. He calculated that East Asia must lie approximately where North America sits on the globe and he thought that only the Atlantic Ocean lay between Europe and the Indies. He found and experienced what he expected to see. He never abandoned this conviction. He didn’t entertain the idea that he could have discovered a whole new continent, previously not featured on any maps. He failed to consider that the maps could all be wrong (maps were finally updated in 1507 to acknowledge the continent of America).
At a time when long-held beliefs and the usual ways of doing things are being disrupted, it becomes more important than ever to check we aren't ignoring new information, just because it doesn't confirm our usual thinking or isn't what we expect to see.
“The eye sees only what the mind is prepared to comprehend. ”
WHY?
We have a bias to look for information that supports, rather than rejects our beliefs and preconceptions. It means we typically interpret evidence in a way that is more likely to confirm what we already think and we reject or ignore conflicting information that would challenge this. Sometimes this can be quite unintentional, but quite profound. It’s called confirmation bias and it’s more likely to happen when we’re faced with information about things we care most about and have more established and embedded beliefs around.
The psychologist Anat Maril and her colleagues at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem explored how a knee-jerk acceptance of opinions kicks in when we encounter views and ideas we agree with. Their research reveals just how rapid and involuntary these mental processes can be and helps to explain how people can become remarkably entrenched in their convictions.*
What can you do about it? The main thing we can do is stop long enough to check for it, especially when it comes to important topics that are close to our hearts.
When looking for evidence, take care over how you frame the inquiry. For instance, rather than asking a question like ‘Is X better than Y?’ Rephrase it to, ‘How do X and Y compare?’
When you reach a conclusion, re-check and seek out the contradictory view or evidence. What did you skim over? What warrants a second look?
Ask ‘what would it take to change my mind?’ Keep alert to finding whatever the answer to this question may be.
Importantly, don’t be too afraid to update your view - and be open to updating it again in the future.
It’s fine to have conviction in something. It’s also fine to abandon this conviction if it’s no longer quite right.
REFERENCES