#ThinkfullyHabit: Be (confidently) humble
When facing a problem, our confidence can fluctuate – and widely so. Psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, called over-confidence, ‘the most significant of the cognitive biases’. In getting to grips with this bias it’s critical to understand when we are most prone to it. If we can tune into the level of difficulty of the problem we are facing, we can keep our confidence in check accordingly, and determine how humble we should be.
“The people who are best at decision making or the best at moving forward and innovating are those that are humble – those who are able to see that what worked in the past may not necessarily work in the future. ”
WHY?
Research consistently shows that our confidence doesn’t tend to match our actual ability and we shouldn’t be swayed by it. And it’s not just a simple story of being too confident. In fact, for easier problems we tend to be under-confident; for harder problems, over-confident. It’s often called the ‘hard-easy’ effect and it’s been found irrespective of personality differences. This means we typically underestimate our ability to solve problems when the situation we’re facing is favourable, and we overestimate our ability when the situation is trickier. Paradoxically, the times we face trickier problems - when we should adjust more, reassess frequently and avoid complacency - are the very times that we get over-confident and fail to do any of these things. It’s easy not to notice when the situation is changing, and familiarity can give us an illusion of control or certainty that just isn’t warranted.
Recognising that a mismatch of confidence and ability is an issue comes into even sharper focus when we realise that confidence is catching. We tend to believe those who express confidence in their decisions and it is our natural instinct to dismiss the views of those who are more humble. Once we recognise competence and confidence aren’t bedfellows we can wise up and check whether we should be more confident or more humble than we might automatically be. To establish how easy or hard the problem is for us we can ask ourselves questions such as, ‘Have I seen this same problem before – or not? What’s different this time – or the same? How has the context changed – or what’s static? How complex are the moving parts – or what’s predictable? Answering these questions can help us grant more confidence when facing problems that are easy, greater humbleness when facing problems that are difficult and the wisdom to know the difference.
REFERENCES
This is the biggest decision-making mistake, Barnaby Marsh, Big Think, 7 March 2020