When facing a problem, our confidence can fluctuate – and widely so. Psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, called over-confidence, ‘the most significant of the cognitive biases’. In getting to grips with this bias it’s critical to understand when we are most prone to it.
Read MoreTake this challenge: You have a cardboard box full of sand and some buried coins. You’re given a set of chopsticks and a spoon. Without tipping the box over or touching the sand with your hands, how do you get the coins out?
Read MoreHow do you check if your assumptions are true or not? Even the best experts in the most critical of situations can fail to check assumptions.
Take the incident at NASA, known as ‘the scariest wardrobe malfunction in NASA history.’ On July 16th, 2013, Luca Parmitano and his fellow astronaut Chris Cassady went out on their second spacewalk together. 45 minutes in, Parmitano felt water at the back of his head. He didn’t know where it was coming from. The command was given to terminate the spacewalk early.
Read MoreDo you think in a binary fashion? Yes or no? To make sense of the world, evaluate data and interpret information, we simplify and summarise. Often that’s helpful, necessary and much needed. However, the amazing thing is the extent to which we do this. Researchers have found that we have a tendency to reduce this down, often to two alternatives. Good or bad? True or false? All or nothing? We over-simplify complex ideas and problems. Psychologists call this our ‘binary bias’.
Read MoreWhen was the last time you questioned an expert’s view or opinion? The status that comes with being perceived as ‘an expert’ can lead to expertise never being questioned and blindly followed, even when it leads to life and death outcomes.
Read MoreExpertise can’t always help us make wiser decisions. Sometimes, it actually gets in our way. This happens if we trip up on the details we’ve cherry picked out as being important, at the expense of the bigger picture.
Read MoreThe human brain craves certainty. We like it when people take away what’s woolly and tidy up the edges of uncertainty. A confident and clear-cut explanation or story is psychologically reassuring and satisfying. It’s what we want to hear, and we’re often happy to bask in the false sense of security. We need to be careful we don’t give in to this temptation too easily.
Read MoreSpotting what seems a little strange can be important. We are far better at spotting patterns than we are at spotting the little things that don’t fit the patterns. We can struggle to recognise the importance of inconsistencies, outliers and anomalies.
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