#ThinkfullyHabit: Be more foxy
The human brain craves certainty. We like it when people take away what’s woolly and tidy up the edges of uncertainty. A confident and clear-cut explanation or story is psychologically reassuring and satisfying. It’s what we want to hear, and we’re often happy to bask in the false sense of security. We need to be careful we don’t give in to this temptation too easily.
“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. ”
WHY?
In 2016, a study compared people’s stress levels with their levels of uncertainty*. In this instance, the uncertainty hinged on whether people knew beyond doubt that they would receive an electric shock or whether they were not sure. Those who were uncertain of having a shock, had the highest stress levels; more so than those who knew for sure what was coming. It suggests we prefer the certainty of something happening; even if negative, over the uncertainty of whether a negative event may or may not happen.
The philosopher, Isaiah Berlin, famously published ‘The Hedgehog and the Fox’**, which introduced the idea of dividing people into ‘foxes’ and ‘hedgehogs’. 'Foxes' represent those people who consider all sorts of different approaches and perspectives and who synthesise ideas down into more nuanced conclusions. 'Hedgehogs', on the other hand, represent those who are more single-minded and tend to view the world through a more singular lens. Our brains certainly like hedgehog types more. As such, their ideas get more of our attention because they tend to reduce uncertainty.
Political Psychologist Philip Tetlock, divided forecasters into ‘foxes’ or ‘hedgehogs’ and between 1964 and 2003 compared their ability to forecast outcomes***. He found that while 'hedgehogs' grabbed people’s attention, they were worse in predicting the outcomes of events. 'Foxes' made far better predictions.
In reality, we probably all have times when we are more fox-like, or more hedgehog-like. The challenge is to know when to get a bit more foxy, particularly when looking ahead to when the past doesn’t predict the future.
To be more foxy means:
- Including uncertainty rather than disregarding it – spelling out what’s not yet clear
- Not fully investing in any one theory but leaving space to adjust to future ideas
- Listening to commentators and voices of those who are less certain and assured
- Getting comfortable with being uncomfortable with uncertainty
So, next time you hear someone delivering a message with absolute certainty, it’s probably time to prick up your ears, ask what the different views could be and get a bit more foxy.
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