#ThinkfullyHabit: Jump from conclusions
We have a tendency to jump to conclusions and to stop exploring the facts and information earlier than we should. We like answers to questions; and as efficiently as possible. It’s even truer in times of greatest uncertainty, so in the current climate this is something we need to be evermore aware of. Jumping to conclusions too soon can mean leaping to premature answers based on what seem to be reasonable (but often incorrect) assumptions, all because we want to resolve uncertainty.
The good news? We can get better at resisting premature closure and hold off quick answers to more complex problems, especially when in greater uncertainty.
“[The] mind is a machine for jumping to conclusions. ”
WHY?
Take this simple example used by Psychologist Daniel Kahneman* - Is Steve a Librarian or a Farmer?
Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.
Based on this description is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
Most people select librarian. However, we probably need some further information to answer the question. Statistically, there are many more farmers than librarians.
The implication? In this example we have to suspend judgement long enough to avoid being influenced if we have a stereotype of librarians being shy, withdrawn and tidy. Suspending judgement means not being swayed by stereotypes but instead asking the right question/s which help get to the best answer.
Scientists at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in Pasadena, have identified the phenomenon of ‘one-shot learning’ which helps explain why we jump to conclusions**. They discovered that uncertainty is the main factor in determining whether or not rapid ‘one-shot’ learning occurs. When it does, we quickly connect a cause with an effect. As neuroscientist Sang Wan Lee explains, “If you are uncertain, or lack evidence, about whether a particular outcome was caused by a preceding event, you are more likely to quickly associate them together.” This helps us in survival scenarios when we don’t need to learn twice that a berry is poisonous, but can mean we jump to conclusions too quickly in other times when we don’t yet have enough evidence to go on.
It means we need to be alert to our brain’s natural inclination to be sure about what’s happening - and resist it. Try these things i) ask the question/s that will give the extra bit of information needed ii) reaffirm a desire to avoid stereotypes, particularly in the most uncertain of situations iii) pause to look for nuance and check for alternative answers iv) remind yourself when you last jumped to the wrong conclusion v) revisit conclusions you have jumped to, as soon new evidence and information becomes available.
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